> Q2 2009 Real GDP

Real GDP contracted at an annualized rate of 1.0 during the second quarter, while revisions to the GDP data show the contraction in real GDP during the current recession to be worse than previously reported. The details of the Q2 GDP report, however, set the stage for a healthy advance in real GDP during Q3. Unlike those analysts arguing that we will see a robust "V-shaped" recovery, however, we believe the boost to real GDP during Q3 will be fueled more by transitory factors, and that the longer-term outlook is for a fairly tame recovery.

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