> July 2009 Employment Report

Nonfarm payrolls declined by 247,000 workers in July, while revisions to the data for May and June show job losses to be less severe than previously reported. The unemployment rate fell to 9.4 percent, thanks to a large decline in the civilian labor force as household employment logged another decline. While the headline figures from the July employment report are better than expected, the labor market remains weak, and while the pace will continue to moderate, job losses are likely to continue through year end. Moreover, as we have been commenting on for some time now, the details from the household survey point to a growing problem in the form of long-term unemployment, reflecting what we contend has been a significant degree of structural unemployment associated with the current recession.

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